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CSKA 1948 vs Cherno More Varna Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 18:15

CSKA 1948

PPG 2.11 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cherno More Varna

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-16.0%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.2%1-110.7%1-24.0%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.6%2-19.5%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.4%3-15.6%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-13.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% 57.8% 1.73 -5.9%

Draw 23.9% 29.0% 3.45 -10.5%

Away win 21.7% 23.1% 4.33 -3.6%

Over 2.5 49.9% 48.8% 2.05 +2.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.7% 3.75 +4.6%

BTTS 47.7% 52.4% 1.91 -8.9%

Home O1.5 49.2% 51.8% 1.93 -5.0%

Away O1.5 17.2% 26.7% 3.75 -21.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.7%

H 54% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.2%

#2 2–0 12.6%

#3 1–1 10.7%

#4 0–0 8.0%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

CSKA 19481.8

Cherno More Varna0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CSKA 1948 · PPG 2.11

CHERNO MORE VARNA · PPG 1.21

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.02 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

CSKA 1948 (H) 54.4%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -5.9%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -10.5%

Cherno More Varna (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

CSKA 1948 face Cherno More Varna in Bulgaria - First League on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives CSKA 1948 a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Cherno More Varna 22%, so CSKA 1948 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for CSKA 1948 and 0.8 for Cherno More Varna (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, CSKA 1948 are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.21 for Cherno More Varna. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.9%.

CSKA 1948 vs Cherno More Varna Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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