Today / Bulgaria - First League / Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia

Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 18:15

Septemvri Sofia

PPG 1.23 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

CSKA Sofia

PPG 1.32 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-113.4%0-210.0%0-34.9%0-4+2.5%1 1-08.3%1-112.3%1-29.2%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-03.8%2-15.7%2-24.2%2-32.1%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.2%3-11.7%3-21.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.5% 16.7% 6.00 +31.8%

Draw 30.2% 25.6% 3.90 +17.8%

Away win 44.2% 67.6% 1.48 -34.6%

Over 2.5 45.9% 54.1% 1.85 -15.1%

Over 3.5 28.7% 31.3% 3.20 -4.9%

BTTS 48.4% 51.3% 1.95 -5.6%

Home O1.5 32.1% 23.1% 4.33 +39.0%

Away O1.5 46.1% 61.7% 1.62 -25.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob48.4%

A 44% / xG 0.9-1.5 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–1 13.4%

#3 0–0 9.0%

#4 0–2 10.0%

#5 1–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Septemvri Sofia0.9

CSKA Sofia1.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SEPTEMVRI SOFIA · PPG 1.23

CSKA SOFIA · PPG 1.32

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.57 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Septemvri Sofia (H) 25.5%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +31.8%

Draw 30.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +17.8%

CSKA Sofia (A) 44.2%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -34.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Septemvri Sofia face CSKA Sofia in Bulgaria - First League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Septemvri Sofia a 26% chance, the draw 30% and CSKA Sofia 44%, so CSKA Sofia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Septemvri Sofia and 1.5 for CSKA Sofia (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Septemvri Sofia are averaging 1.23 points per game versus 1.32 for CSKA Sofia. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +39.0%. This match finished 0-3.

Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bulgaria - First League Predictions