Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Georgia - Erovnuli Liga Regular Season - 8 Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena· Tbilisi Tuesday, April 21, 2026 15:00

Dinamo Tbilisi PPG 0.75

0-1 MISS

Gagra PPG 1.67

Home· -8.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...

48% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Tbilisi face Gagra in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Tbilisi a 56% chance, the draw 27% and Gagra 17%, so Dinamo Tbilisi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Dinamo Tbilisi and 0.6 for Gagra (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Tbilisi are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.67 for Gagra. This match finished 0-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 56.3%

Odds: 1.62 EV: -8.8%

Draw 27.1%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -11.9%

Away 16.5%

Odds: 5.00 EV: -17.5%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 34.0% Odds: — —

Over 3.5 15.4% Odds: — —

BTTS 35.7% Odds: 2.05 -26.8%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 1-1 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Dinamo Tbilisi

1.43

Gagra

0.63

Model SuggestionHome -8.8% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -8.8% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5/Under 50%

BTTS/No 44%

Score Hit 44%

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...

48%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.67) strong but model favors Home (P=56.3%)