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Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Regular Season - 8 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 15:00

Dinamo Tbilisi

PPG 0.75 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Gagra

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.7%0-18.1%0-22.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.2%1-111.5%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.0%2-18.2%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.2%3-13.9%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-11.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.3% 61.7% 1.62 -8.8%

Draw 27.1% 30.8% 3.25 -11.9%

Away win 16.5% 20.0% 5.00 -17.5%

Over 2.5 34.0% — — —

Over 3.5 15.4% — — —

BTTS 35.7% 48.8% 2.05 -26.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob35.7%

H 56% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.2%

#2 2–0 13.0%

#3 0–0 12.7%

#4 1–1 11.5%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dinamo Tbilisi1.4

Gagra0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.0% · O3.5 PROB 15.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DINAMO TBILISI · PPG 0.75

GAGRA · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...

48%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.67) strong but model favors Home (P=56.3%)

Win probability 1X2

Dinamo Tbilisi (H) 56.3%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -8.8%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -11.9%

Gagra (A) 16.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -17.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Tbilisi face Gagra in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Tbilisi a 56% chance, the draw 27% and Gagra 17%, so Dinamo Tbilisi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Dinamo Tbilisi and 0.6 for Gagra (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Tbilisi are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.67 for Gagra. This match finished 0-1.

Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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