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Brondby vs Sonderjyske Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Matchday 4 ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 17:00

Brondby

PPG 1.64 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sonderjyske

PPG 1.01 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-17.3%0-23.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.1%1-111.7%1-24.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.4%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.1%3-15.0%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-12.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 71.4% 1.40 -25.4%

Draw 24.4% 22.2% 4.50 +5.9%

Away win 22.2% 13.8% 7.25 +36.6%

Over 2.5 49.9% 62.5% 1.60 -20.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 40.8% 2.45 -17.8%

BTTS 51.6% 57.8% 1.73 -10.7%

Home O1.5 47.2% 69.4% 1.44 -32.0%

Away O1.5 21.1% 25.6% 3.90 -10.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 14.1%

#3 2–0 11.4%

#4 0–0 8.8%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brondby1.6

Sonderjyske0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BRONDBY · PPG 1.64

SONDERJYSKE · PPG 1.01

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Brondby (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -25.4%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +5.9%

Sonderjyske (A) 22.2%

ODDS 7.25 · IMPLIED 13.8% EV +36.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brondby face Sonderjyske in Denmark - Superliga on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brondby a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Sonderjyske 22%, so Brondby are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Brondby and 0.8 for Sonderjyske (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brondby are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.01 for Sonderjyske. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +21.6%.

Brondby vs Sonderjyske Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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