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Sonderjyske vs Viborg Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 17:00

Sonderjyske

PPG 1.22 · HOME

UPCOMING

Viborg

PPG 1.03 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-19.3%0-25.8%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.0%1-112.5%1-27.8%1-33.3%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.7%2-18.4%2-25.3%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.0%3-13.8%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.7%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.0% 33.3% 3.00 +11.0%

Draw 27.9% 27.4% 3.65 +1.1%

Away win 35.1% 46.5% 2.15 -24.5%

Over 2.5 50.3% 61.7% 1.62 -18.5%

Over 3.5 28.8% 39.2% 2.55 -15.9%

BTTS 53.1% 66.7% 1.50 -20.3%

Home O1.5 37.4% 44.4% 2.25 -15.8%

Away O1.5 35.7% 54.1% 1.85 -34.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.1%

H 37% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.4%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sonderjyske1.3

Viborg1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SONDERJYSKE · PPG 1.22

VIBORG · PPG 1.03

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.10 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sonderjyske (H) 37.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +11.0%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +1.1%

Viborg (A) 35.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -24.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sonderjyske face Viborg in Denmark - Superliga on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sonderjyske a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Viborg 35%, so Sonderjyske are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sonderjyske and 1.3 for Viborg (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sonderjyske are averaging 1.22 points per game versus 1.03 for Viborg. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.5%.

Sonderjyske vs Viborg Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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