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FC Nordsjaelland vs Silkeborg Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 12:00

FC Nordsjaelland

PPG 1.96 · HOME

UPCOMING

Silkeborg

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-15.8%0-22.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.9%1-110.7%1-25.3%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.2%3-16.1%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-14.3%4+-22.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.1% 73.5% 1.36 -30.5%

Draw 26.5% 20.0% 5.00 +19.5%

Away win 22.3% 13.9% 7.20 +36.3%

Over 2.5 50.0% 72.5% 1.38 -31.0%

Over 3.5 31.4% 51.8% 1.93 -39.4%

BTTS 53.1% 66.7% 1.50 -20.3%

Home O1.5 54.6% 76.9% 1.30 -29.0%

Away O1.5 27.1% 33.3% 3.00 -11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 51% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Nordsjaelland1.8

Silkeborg1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 31.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FC NORDSJAELLAND · PPG 1.96

SILKEBORG · PPG 1.18

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.86 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Nordsjaelland (H) 51.1%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -30.5%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +19.5%

Silkeborg (A) 22.3%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV +36.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Nordsjaelland face Silkeborg in Denmark - Superliga on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Nordsjaelland a 51% chance, the draw 27% and Silkeborg 22%, so FC Nordsjaelland are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for FC Nordsjaelland and 1.0 for Silkeborg (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Nordsjaelland are averaging 1.96 points per game versus 1.18 for Silkeborg. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +12.4%.

FC Nordsjaelland vs Silkeborg Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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