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Odense vs Sonderjyske Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Matchday 2 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 17:00

Odense

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sonderjyske

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.6%0-24.2%0-32.1%0-4+1.1%1 1-06.8%1-110.1%1-27.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.9%2 2-06.1%2-19.0%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.6%3-15.4%3-24.0%3-32.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.6%4+-22.7%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 48.8% 2.05 -3.9%

Draw 23.6% 27.4% 3.65 -8.3%

Away win 29.5% 30.3% 3.30 -1.6%

Over 2.5 63.6% 61.7% 1.62 +3.0%

Over 3.5 40.3% 39.2% 2.55 +2.8%

BTTS 62.1% 66.7% 1.50 -6.9%

Home O1.5 49.4% 55.6% 1.80 -11.1%

Away O1.5 47.1% 41.7% 2.40 +13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -0.8%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.1%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Odense1.8

Sonderjyske1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ODENSE · PPG 1.50

SONDERJYSKE · PPG 1.21

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Odense (H) 46.9%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -3.9%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -8.3%

Sonderjyske (A) 29.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -1.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Odense face Sonderjyske in Denmark - Superliga on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Odense a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Sonderjyske 30%, so Odense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Odense and 1.5 for Sonderjyske (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Odense are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.21 for Sonderjyske. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +13.0%.

Odense vs Sonderjyske Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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