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Viborg vs Aarhus Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 17:00

Viborg

PPG 1.72 · HOME

UPCOMING

Aarhus

PPG 1.72 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-110.0%0-26.5%0-32.8%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.8%1-112.7%1-28.2%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.2%2-18.0%2-25.2%2-32.2%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.6%3-13.4%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.1% 50.0% 2.00 -27.8%

Draw 28.3% 27.4% 3.65 +2.0%

Away win 35.6% 29.4% 3.40 +21.0%

Over 2.5 49.9% 59.9% 1.67 -16.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 37.7% 2.65 -14.4%

BTTS 53.1% 64.5% 1.55 -17.7%

Home O1.5 37.9% 55.6% 1.80 -31.8%

Away O1.5 37.6% 40.0% 2.50 -6.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -4.0%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.1%

D 28% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 7.7%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Viborg1.3

Aarhus1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VIBORG · PPG 1.72

AARHUS · PPG 1.72

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.03 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Viborg (H) 36.1%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -27.8%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +2.0%

Aarhus (A) 35.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +21.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Viborg face Aarhus in Denmark - Superliga on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Viborg a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Aarhus 36%, so Viborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Viborg and 1.3 for Aarhus (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Viborg are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 1.72 for Aarhus. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +4.7%.

Viborg vs Aarhus Prediction— Denmark - Superliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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