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PFC Sochi vs Krylya Sovetov Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Regular Season - 26 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 14:30

PFC Sochi

PPG 0.42 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Krylya Sovetov

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 53.5% — a clear edge.

+12.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-16.8%0-24.7%0-32.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.0%1-111.1%1-27.7%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-19.0%2-26.2%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.6%3-14.9%3-23.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.9%4+-22.0%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 36.2% 2.76 +20.1%

Draw 24.1% 31.7% 3.15 -24.1%

Away win 32.5% 35.5% 2.82 -8.3%

Over 2.5 57.9% 44.1% 2.27 +31.4%

Over 3.5 35.5% 26.0% 3.84 +36.3%

BTTS 60.1% 53.5% 1.87 +12.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 67%

ROI 5.7%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.1%

H 44% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1✓ 9.0%

#3 1–0 8.0%

#4 1–2 7.7%

#5 0–1 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

PFC Sochi1.6

Krylya Sovetov1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.9% · O3.5 PROB 35.5%

Form & verdict PPG

PFC SOCHI · PPG 0.42

KRYLYA SOVETOV · PPG 0.38

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.42), Away POOR (0.38)

Win probability 1X2

PFC Sochi (H) 43.5%

ODDS 2.76 · IMPLIED 36.2% EV +20.1%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -24.1%

Krylya Sovetov (A) 32.5%

ODDS 2.82 · IMPLIED 35.5% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

PFC Sochi face Krylya Sovetov in Russia - Premier League on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives PFC Sochi a 44% chance, the draw 24% and Krylya Sovetov 33%, so PFC Sochi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for PFC Sochi and 1.4 for Krylya Sovetov (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, PFC Sochi are averaging 0.42 points per game versus 0.38 for Krylya Sovetov. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +36.3%. This match finished 2-1.

PFC Sochi vs Krylya Sovetov Prediction— Russia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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