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Ararat-Armenia vs FC Urartu Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 15:00

Ararat-Armenia

PPG 2.03 · HOME

UPCOMING

FC Urartu

PPG 1.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-15.4%0-23.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.8%1-110.1%1-26.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.3%2-19.5%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.6%3-16.0%3-23.9%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-14.3%4+-22.8%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% — — —

Draw 23.1% — — —

Away win 26.2% — — —

Over 2.5 63.4% — — —

Over 3.5 39.5% — — —

BTTS 61.8% — — —

Home O1.5 55.4% — — —

Away O1.5 39.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 36 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.8%

H 51% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.3%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 1–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ararat-Armenia1.9

FC Urartu1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ARARAT-ARMENIA · PPG 2.03

FC URARTU · PPG 1.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ararat-Armenia (H) 50.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

FC Urartu (A) 26.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ararat-Armenia face FC Urartu in Armenia - Premier League on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ararat-Armenia a 51% chance, the draw 23% and FC Urartu 26%, so Ararat-Armenia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Ararat-Armenia and 1.3 for FC Urartu (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ararat-Armenia are averaging 2.03 points per game versus 1.87 for FC Urartu.

Ararat-Armenia vs FC Urartu Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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