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Shirak vs FC Noah Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 15:00

Shirak

PPG 0.97 · HOME

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

FC Noah

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.9%0-116.8%0-214.3%0-38.2%0-4+5.1%1 1-06.0%1-110.3%1-28.8%1-35.0%1-4+3.1%2 2-01.8%2-13.1%2-22.7%2-31.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-00.4%3-10.6%3-20.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.6% 10.8% 9.25 +21.0%

Draw 25.1% 22.2% 4.50 +7.8%

Away win 60.3% 76.9% 1.30 -21.6%

Over 2.5 50.3% 58.8% 1.70 -14.5%

Over 3.5 28.8% 37.0% 2.70 -13.3%

BTTS 48.4% 50.0% 2.00 -3.2%

Home O1.5 32.1% 19.0% 5.25 +68.5%

Away O1.5 48.2% 70.4% 1.42 -31.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 8.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob48.4%

A 60% / xG 0.6-1.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 16.8%

#2 0–2 14.3%

#3 1–1 10.3%

#4 0–0 9.9%

#5 1–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shirak0.6

FC Noah1.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SHIRAK · PPG 0.97

FC NOAH · PPG 1.82

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.09 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Shirak (H) 14.6%

ODDS 9.25 · IMPLIED 10.8% EV +21.0%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +7.8%

FC Noah (A) 60.3%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shirak face FC Noah in Armenia - Premier League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shirak a 15% chance, the draw 25% and FC Noah 60%, so FC Noah are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Shirak and 1.7 for FC Noah (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shirak are averaging 0.97 points per game versus 1.82 for FC Noah. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +68.5%. This match finished 3-4.

Shirak vs FC Noah Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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