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Alashkert vs Ararat Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Matchday 1 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 16:00

Alashkert

PPG 1.87 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ararat

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.73 for Home, form 1.87 vs 0.85 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-13.0%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.8%1-17.3%1-22.7%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.2%2-19.1%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.1%3-17.5%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-011.3%4+-18.4%4+-23.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.7% — — —

Draw 17.3% — — —

Away win 16.0% — — —

Over 2.5 63.6% — — —

Over 3.5 40.2% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 63.5% — — —

Away O1.5 20.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -15.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.6%

H 67% / xG 2.5-0.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.2%

#2 3–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 1–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alashkert2.5

Ararat0.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ALASHKERT · PPG 1.87

ARARAT · PPG 0.85

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.73 for Home, form 1.87 vs 0.85 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Alashkert (H) 66.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ararat (A) 16.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Alashkert face Ararat in Armenia - Premier League on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alashkert a 67% chance, the draw 17% and Ararat 16%, so Alashkert are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Alashkert and 0.7 for Ararat (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alashkert are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 0.85 for Ararat.

Alashkert vs Ararat Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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