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Van vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 12:00

Van

PPG 1.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ararat-Armenia

PPG 2.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -1.05 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-17.7%0-28.4%0-36.2%0-4+5.7%1 1-04.0%1-18.9%1-29.8%1-37.2%1-4+6.6%2 2-02.3%2-15.1%2-25.6%2-34.1%2-4+3.8%3 3-00.9%3-12.0%3-22.2%3-31.6%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.1% — — —

Draw 21.7% — — —

Away win 55.2% — — —

Over 2.5 61.4% — — —

Over 3.5 38.8% — — —

BTTS 57.7% — — —

Home O1.5 30.4% — — —

Away O1.5 61.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 8.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob57.7%

A 55% / xG 1.2-2.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 8.4%

#4 1–3 7.2%

#5 0–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Van1.2

Ararat-Armenia2.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VAN · PPG 1.14

ARARAT-ARMENIA · PPG 2.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.05 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Van (H) 23.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ararat-Armenia (A) 55.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Van face Ararat-Armenia in Armenia - Premier League on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Van a 23% chance, the draw 22% and Ararat-Armenia 55%, so Ararat-Armenia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Van and 2.2 for Ararat-Armenia (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Van are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 2.10 for Ararat-Armenia.

Van vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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