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Pyunik Yerevan vs Van Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 13:00

Pyunik Yerevan

PPG 2.07 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Van

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-13.2%0-21.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.0%1-17.8%1-23.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.9%2-19.5%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.8%3-17.7%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.4%4+-18.2%4+-23.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.5% 83.3% 1.20 -23.8%

Draw 20.4% 17.4% 5.75 +10.4%

Away win 16.1% 9.1% 11.00 +46.3%

Over 2.5 63.6% 64.5% 1.55 -1.4%

Over 3.5 40.6% 41.7% 2.40 -2.6%

BTTS 54.6% 46.5% 2.15 +17.4%

Home O1.5 62.4% 78.1% 1.28 -20.1%

Away O1.5 22.9% 16.7% 6.00 +22.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 8.1%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 64% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 7.8%

#4 3–0✓ 8.8%

#5 1–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pyunik Yerevan2.4

Van0.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PYUNIK YEREVAN · PPG 2.07

VAN · PPG 1.17

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.55 for Home, form 2.07 vs 1.17 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Pyunik Yerevan (H) 63.5%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -23.8%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +10.4%

Van (A) 16.1%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +46.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pyunik Yerevan face Van in Armenia - Premier League on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pyunik Yerevan a 64% chance, the draw 20% and Van 16%, so Pyunik Yerevan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Pyunik Yerevan and 0.9 for Van (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pyunik Yerevan are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.17 for Van. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +97.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Pyunik Yerevan vs Van Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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