Lok. Zagreb vs Slaven Belupo Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Croatia - HNL Regular Season - 31 Stadion Maksimir· Zagreb Tuesday, April 21, 2026 14:00

Lok. Zagreb PPG 1.67

2-1 HIT CS2

Slaven Belupo PPG 0.80

Over3.5· +29.8% ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Lok. Zagreb face Slaven Belupo in Croatia - HNL on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lok. Zagreb a 49% chance, the draw 23% and Slaven Belupo 28%, so Lok. Zagreb are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Lok. Zagreb and 1.3 for Slaven Belupo (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lok. Zagreb are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.80 for Slaven Belupo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +29.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 49.2%

Odds: 2.22 EV: +9.2%

Draw 23.2%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -24.6%

Away 27.7%

Odds: 3.05 EV: -15.5%

Model lean: BTTS

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.4% Odds: 2.00 +18.8%

Over 3.5 37.1% Odds: 3.50 +29.8%

BTTS 60.4% Odds: 1.73 +4.5%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✔

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 2-0 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Lok. Zagreb

1.79

Slaven Belupo

1.29

Model SuggestionBTTS +4.5% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+29.8%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5/Under 71%

BTTS/No 50%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -28.6%

Bet Hit 29% (7 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=49.2%