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Lok. Zagreb vs Slaven Belupo Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Regular Season - 31 ·Tuesday, April 21, 2026, 14:00

Lok. Zagreb

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Slaven Belupo

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-15.9%0-23.8%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.2%1-110.6%1-26.8%1-32.9%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.4%2-19.5%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.4%3-15.7%3-23.7%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.8%4+-22.5%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% 45.0% 2.22 +9.2%

Draw 23.2% 30.8% 3.25 -24.6%

Away win 27.7% 32.8% 3.05 -15.5%

Over 2.5 59.4% 50.0% 2.00 +18.8%

Over 3.5 37.1% 28.6% 3.50 +29.8%

BTTS 60.4% 57.8% 1.73 +4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob60.4%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1✓ 9.5%

#3 1–0 8.2%

#4 2–0 7.4%

#5 1–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lok. Zagreb1.8

Slaven Belupo1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LOK. ZAGREB · PPG 1.67

SLAVEN BELUPO · PPG 0.80

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=49.2%

Win probability 1X2

Lok. Zagreb (H) 49.2%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV +9.2%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -24.6%

Slaven Belupo (A) 27.7%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -15.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lok. Zagreb face Slaven Belupo in Croatia - HNL on Tuesday, April 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lok. Zagreb a 49% chance, the draw 23% and Slaven Belupo 28%, so Lok. Zagreb are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Lok. Zagreb and 1.3 for Slaven Belupo (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lok. Zagreb are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.80 for Slaven Belupo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +29.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Lok. Zagreb vs Slaven Belupo Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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