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Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kudrivka Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 1 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 15:00

Shakhtar Donetsk

PPG 2.13 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kudrivka

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.6% vs bookmaker-implied 92.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-14.0%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.8%1-18.8%1-23.6%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.9%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.7%3-17.1%3-22.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.9%4+-16.5%4+-22.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.6% 92.6% 1.08 -33.5%

Draw 20.8% 12.5% 8.00 +39.8%

Away win 17.6% 6.3% 16.00 +109.0%

Over 2.5 61.2% 73.5% 1.36 -16.8%

Over 3.5 37.3% 50.0% 2.00 -25.4%

BTTS 52.6% 44.2% 2.26 +18.9%

Home O1.5 60.1% 85.5% 1.17 -29.7%

Away O1.5 20.3% 13.3% 7.50 +31.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 55%

ROI 25.0%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 62% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.9%

#2 1–1 8.8%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 1–0 10.8%

#5 3–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shakhtar Donetsk2.2

Kudrivka0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 37.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SHAKHTAR DONETSK · PPG 2.13

KUDRIVKA · PPG 0.81

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.38 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Shakhtar Donetsk (H) 61.6%

ODDS 1.08 · IMPLIED 92.6% EV -33.5%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV +39.8%

Kudrivka (A) 17.6%

ODDS 16.00 · IMPLIED 6.3% EV +109.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shakhtar Donetsk face Kudrivka in Ukraine - Premier League on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 62% chance, the draw 21% and Kudrivka 18%, so Shakhtar Donetsk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.8 for Kudrivka (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.13 points per game versus 0.81 for Kudrivka. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +194.9%.

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Kudrivka Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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