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FC Kharkiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 12:30

FC Kharkiv

PPG 1.87 · HOME

UPCOMING

Shakhtar Donetsk

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-113.5%0-210.9%0-35.9%0-4+3.4%1 1-07.3%1-111.7%1-29.4%1-35.1%1-4+2.9%2 2-03.1%2-15.1%2-24.1%2-32.2%2-4+1.3%3 3-00.9%3-11.5%3-21.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.9% — — —

Draw 26.8% — — —

Away win 49.3% — — —

Over 2.5 47.8% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 48.0% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 47.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 53%

ROI 23.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob48.0%

A 49% / xG 0.9-1.6 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 0–1 13.5%

#3 0–2 10.9%

#4 0–0 8.4%

#5 1–2 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Kharkiv0.9

Shakhtar Donetsk1.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FC KHARKIV · PPG 1.87

SHAKHTAR DONETSK · PPG 2.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.74 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Kharkiv (H) 23.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Shakhtar Donetsk (A) 49.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Kharkiv face Shakhtar Donetsk in Ukraine - Premier League on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Kharkiv a 24% chance, the draw 27% and Shakhtar Donetsk 49%, so Shakhtar Donetsk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for FC Kharkiv and 1.6 for Shakhtar Donetsk (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Kharkiv are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 2.20 for Shakhtar Donetsk.

FC Kharkiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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