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FF Jaro vs VPS Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 16:00

FF Jaro

PPG 1.44 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

VPS

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-111.7%0-27.3%0-33.1%0-4+1.3%1 1-010.4%1-113.1%1-28.2%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.8%2-17.3%2-24.6%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.2%3-12.7%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.2% 28.2% 3.55 +35.6%

Draw 27.4% 27.4% 3.65 +0.0%

Away win 34.5% 53.2% 1.88 -35.1%

Over 2.5 50.3% 55.6% 1.80 -9.5%

Over 3.5 28.8% 33.9% 2.95 -9.0%

BTTS 53.1% 59.9% 1.67 -11.3%

Home O1.5 32.1% 34.7% 2.88 -7.5%

Away O1.5 35.7% 54.1% 1.85 -34.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 21.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.1%

A 34% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.3%

#3 0–1 11.7%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 1–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FF Jaro1.1

VPS1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FF JARO · PPG 1.44

VPS · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.13, combined xG 2.38 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FF Jaro (H) 38.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +35.6%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +0.0%

VPS (A) 34.5%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV -35.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

FF Jaro face VPS in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FF Jaro a 38% chance, the draw 27% and VPS 35%, so FF Jaro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for FF Jaro and 1.3 for VPS (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FF Jaro are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.00 for VPS. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +11.3%. This match finished 1-3.

FF Jaro vs VPS Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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