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Lahti vs KuPS Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 14:00

Lahti

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

KuPS

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-112.0%0-25.9%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.6%1-113.4%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.7%2-17.5%2-23.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.9%3-12.8%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.5% 39.7% 2.52 -0.5%

Draw 27.0% 30.3% 3.30 -6.5%

Away win 33.5% 38.8% 2.58 -13.6%

Over 2.5 49.9% 54.6% 1.83 -8.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

BTTS 53.1% 61.7% 1.62 -14.0%

Home O1.5 30.2% 43.5% 2.30 -30.5%

Away O1.5 27.3% 43.5% 2.30 -22.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 67 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 21.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 40% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 12.1%

#3 1–0 13.6%

#4 0–1 12.0%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lahti1.1

KuPS1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LAHTI · PPG 1.80

KUPS · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.14, combined xG 2.11 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lahti (H) 39.5%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV -0.5%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -6.5%

KuPS (A) 33.5%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV -13.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lahti face KuPS in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lahti a 40% chance, the draw 27% and KuPS 34%, so Lahti are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Lahti and 1.0 for KuPS (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lahti are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 2.00 for KuPS.

Lahti vs KuPS Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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