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KuPS vs Turku PS Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 12:00

KuPS

PPG 2.33 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Turku PS

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-14.6%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.2%1-19.3%1-23.3%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.3%2-19.4%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.0%3-16.4%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.2%4+-15.1%4+-21.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.0% 69.4% 1.44 -10.7%

Draw 21.6% 23.3% 4.30 -4.3%

Away win 16.4% 16.1% 6.20 +1.0%

Over 2.5 53.5% 61.7% 1.62 -13.3%

Over 3.5 32.3% 40.0% 2.50 -19.3%

BTTS 52.4% 58.8% 1.70 -10.9%

Home O1.5 55.6% 67.6% 1.48 -17.7%

Away O1.5 17.4% 26.7% 3.75 -20.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 21.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.4%

H 62% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.3%

#2 1–0 13.2%

#3 1–1✓ 9.3%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 3–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KuPS2.0

Turku PS0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KUPS · PPG 2.33

TURKU PS · PPG 0.38

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.31 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

KuPS (H) 62.0%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -10.7%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV -4.3%

Turku PS (A) 16.4%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

KuPS face Turku PS in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KuPS a 62% chance, the draw 22% and Turku PS 16%, so KuPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for KuPS and 0.7 for Turku PS (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KuPS are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.38 for Turku PS. This match finished 1-1.

KuPS vs Turku PS Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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