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VPS vs Turku PS Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 20 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 15:00

VPS

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Turku PS

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-17.0%0-22.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.7%1-111.1%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.2%2-18.8%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.0%3-14.7%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-12.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% 61.0% 1.64 -10.8%

Draw 23.9% 26.7% 3.75 -6.2%

Away win 21.7% 21.5% 4.65 +0.5%

Over 2.5 45.9% 57.8% 1.73 -20.6%

Over 3.5 27.6% 35.7% 2.80 -13.6%

BTTS 47.7% 59.9% 1.67 -20.3%

Home O1.5 47.2% 58.8% 1.70 -19.8%

Away O1.5 17.2% 29.9% 3.35 -25.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 21.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.7%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.7%

#2 2–0 13.2%

#3 1–1 11.1%

#4 0–0 10.5%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

VPS1.6

Turku PS0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 27.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VPS · PPG 2.00

TURKU PS · PPG 0.44

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.92 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

VPS (H) 54.4%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -10.8%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.2%

Turku PS (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

VPS face Turku PS in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives VPS a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Turku PS 22%, so VPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for VPS and 0.7 for Turku PS (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, VPS are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.44 for Turku PS.

VPS vs Turku PS Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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