Today / Finland - Veikkausliiga / Ilves vs Mariehamn

Ilves vs Mariehamn Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 15:00

Ilves

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Mariehamn

PPG 0.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-11.4%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-07.2%1-14.4%1-21.4%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-011.4%2-17.0%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.0%3-17.4%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-021.1%4+-113.0%4+-24.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.0% 76.3% 1.31 -1.8%

Draw 16.6% 18.9% 5.30 -7.2%

Away win 8.4% 13.7% 7.30 -23.2%

Over 2.5 67.2% 70.4% 1.42 -4.6%

Over 3.5 44.5% 46.5% 2.15 -4.3%

BTTS 49.6% 59.9% 1.67 -17.2%

Home O1.5 78.3% 75.2% 1.33 +4.1%

Away O1.5 17.4% 26.3% 3.80 -20.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 21.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.6%

H 75% / xG 3.2-0.6 / O2.5 67% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 12.0%

#2 2–0✓ 11.4%

#3 4–0 9.5%

#4 3–1 7.4%

#5 2–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ilves3.2

Mariehamn0.6

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ILVES · PPG 2.00

MARIEHAMN · PPG 0.11

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.55 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.11 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Ilves (H) 75.0%

ODDS 1.31 · IMPLIED 76.3% EV -1.8%

Draw 16.6%

ODDS 5.30 · IMPLIED 18.9% EV -7.2%

Mariehamn (A) 8.4%

ODDS 7.30 · IMPLIED 13.7% EV -23.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ilves face Mariehamn in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ilves a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Mariehamn 8%, so Ilves are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Ilves and 0.6 for Mariehamn (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ilves are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.11 for Mariehamn. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +4.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Ilves vs Mariehamn Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Veikkausliiga Predictions