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Mariehamn vs SJK Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 16:00

Mariehamn

PPG 0.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

SJK

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-112.4%0-29.5%0-34.9%0-4+2.7%1 1-07.9%1-112.1%1-29.4%1-34.8%1-4+2.6%2 2-03.9%2-15.9%2-24.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.3%3-11.9%3-21.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.9% 16.7% 6.00 +40.4%

Draw 26.4% 22.7% 4.40 +9.7%

Away win 45.8% 69.4% 1.44 -34.1%

Over 2.5 49.9% 69.4% 1.44 -28.1%

Over 3.5 28.9% 47.6% 2.10 -23.6%

BTTS 53.1% 66.7% 1.50 -20.3%

Home O1.5 30.2% 33.3% 3.00 -9.4%

Away O1.5 47.3% 72.5% 1.38 -34.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 21.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob53.1%

A 46% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 0–1 12.4%

#3 0–0 8.0%

#4 0–2 9.5%

#5 1–2 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mariehamn1.0

SJK1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MARIEHAMN · PPG 0.44

SJK · PPG 0.67

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.56 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Mariehamn (H) 27.9%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +40.4%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +9.7%

SJK (A) 45.8%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -34.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mariehamn face SJK in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mariehamn a 28% chance, the draw 26% and SJK 46%, so SJK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Mariehamn and 1.5 for SJK (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mariehamn are averaging 0.44 points per game versus 0.67 for SJK. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +18.3%.

Mariehamn vs SJK Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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