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AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Matchday 19 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 16:00

AC Oulu

PPG 2.38 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

HJK Helsinki

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-17.9%0-24.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.8%1-112.2%1-26.3%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.3%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.6%3-14.8%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.6%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.4% 33.3% 3.00 +45.2%

Draw 26.0% 29.4% 3.40 -7.0%

Away win 25.6% 46.5% 2.15 -27.0%

Over 2.5 50.8% 58.8% 1.70 -13.6%

Over 3.5 29.6% 36.4% 2.75 -11.2%

BTTS 53.1% 64.5% 1.55 -17.7%

Home O1.5 45.4% 41.7% 2.40 +9.0%

Away O1.5 32.1% 51.3% 1.95 -37.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 21.0%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 48% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–0 11.8%

#3 0–0 7.7%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 2–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AC Oulu1.5

HJK Helsinki1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.8% · O3.5 PROB 29.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AC OULU · PPG 2.38

HJK HELSINKI · PPG 1.22

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

AC Oulu (H) 48.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +45.2%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -7.0%

HJK Helsinki (A) 25.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -27.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

AC Oulu face HJK Helsinki in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AC Oulu a 48% chance, the draw 26% and HJK Helsinki 26%, so AC Oulu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for AC Oulu and 1.0 for HJK Helsinki (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AC Oulu are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.22 for HJK Helsinki. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +19.4%. This match finished 0-1.

AC Oulu vs HJK Helsinki Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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