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Brunswick City vs North Geelong Warriors Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 07:15

Brunswick City

PPG 1.73 · HOME

UPCOMING

North Geelong Warriors

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-12.2%0-21.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.4%1 1-04.1%1-16.0%1-24.3%1-32.1%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.7%2-18.2%2-25.9%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.2%3-17.6%3-25.5%3-32.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-110.2%4+-27.3%4+-33.5%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.4% — — —

Draw 15.7% — — —

Away win 20.9% — — —

Over 2.5 68.0% — — —

Over 3.5 47.2% — — —

BTTS 63.3% — — —

Home O1.5 63.8% — — —

Away O1.5 42.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -35.9%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.3%

H 63% / xG 2.8-1.4 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.2%

#2 3–1 7.6%

#3 1–1 6.0%

#4 2–2 5.9%

#5 2–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brunswick City2.8

North Geelong Warriors1.4

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.0% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BRUNSWICK CITY · PPG 1.73

NORTH GEELONG WARRIORS · PPG 0.82

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.31 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Brunswick City (H) 63.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

North Geelong Warriors (A) 20.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Brunswick City face North Geelong Warriors in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brunswick City a 63% chance, the draw 16% and North Geelong Warriors 21%, so Brunswick City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Brunswick City and 1.4 for North Geelong Warriors (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brunswick City are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.82 for North Geelong Warriors.

Brunswick City vs North Geelong Warriors Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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