Today / Australia - Victoria NPL 2 / Melbourne Victory II vs Melbourne Srbija

Melbourne Victory II vs Melbourne Srbija Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Matchday 23 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 10:15

Melbourne Victory II

PPG 2.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Melbourne Srbija

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-14.5%0-22.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.5%1-19.4%1-25.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.9%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.2%3-16.9%3-23.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-15.9%4+-23.3%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% — — —

Draw 22.2% — — —

Away win 23.4% — — —

Over 2.5 63.6% — — —

Over 3.5 40.2% — — —

BTTS 62.1% — — —

Home O1.5 60.1% — — —

Away O1.5 36.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -35.9%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob62.1%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 8.5%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Melbourne Victory II2.1

Melbourne Srbija1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MELBOURNE VICTORY II · PPG 2.30

MELBOURNE SRBIJA · PPG 1.30

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.98 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Melbourne Victory II (H) 54.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Melbourne Srbija (A) 23.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Melbourne Victory II face Melbourne Srbija in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Melbourne Victory II a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Melbourne Srbija 23%, so Melbourne Victory II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Melbourne Victory II and 1.1 for Melbourne Srbija (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Melbourne Victory II are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 1.30 for Melbourne Srbija.

Melbourne Victory II vs Melbourne Srbija Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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