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Melbourne Srbija vs North Geelong Warriors Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 05:00

Melbourne Srbija

PPG 1.73 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

North Geelong Warriors

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-14.9%0-22.5%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.9%1-19.9%1-25.0%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-110.0%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.7%3-16.7%3-23.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-15.3%4+-22.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 21.1% — — —

Over 2.5 60.4% — — —

Over 3.5 36.8% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 55.4% — — —

Away O1.5 30.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -35.9%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 56% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 10.0%

#3 2–0 10.0%

#4 1–0✓ 9.9%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Melbourne Srbija2.0

North Geelong Warriors1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MELBOURNE SRBIJA · PPG 1.73

NORTH GEELONG WARRIORS · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.01 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Melbourne Srbija (H) 56.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

North Geelong Warriors (A) 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Melbourne Srbija face North Geelong Warriors in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Melbourne Srbija a 56% chance, the draw 22% and North Geelong Warriors 21%, so Melbourne Srbija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Melbourne Srbija and 1.0 for North Geelong Warriors (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Melbourne Srbija are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.90 for North Geelong Warriors. This match finished 1-0.

Melbourne Srbija vs North Geelong Warriors Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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