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Langwarrin vs Brunswick City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 23 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 05:00

Langwarrin

PPG 1.27 · HOME

UPCOMING

Brunswick City

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.7% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-12.6%0-22.4%0-31.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-03.3%1-16.2%1-25.9%1-33.7%1-4+2.7%2 2-04.0%2-17.5%2-27.0%2-34.4%2-4+3.2%3 3-03.2%3-16.0%3-25.6%3-33.5%3-4+2.6%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-16.3%4+-26.0%4+-33.7%4+-4+2.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% 45.5% 2.20 +8.2%

Draw 22.0% 23.8% 4.20 -4.6%

Away win 28.8% 42.6% 2.35 -19.4%

Over 2.5 72.7% 78.1% 1.28 -6.9%

Over 3.5 52.5% 58.1% 1.72 -9.7%

BTTS 70.3% 79.4% 1.26 -11.4%

Home O1.5 60.1% 63.3% 1.58 -5.0%

Away O1.5 50.0% 61.3% 1.63 -18.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -35.9%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob70.3%

H 49% / xG 2.4-1.9 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.5%

#2 1–1 6.2%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 3–1 6.0%

#5 1–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Langwarrin2.4

Brunswick City1.9

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 52.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LANGWARRIN · PPG 1.27

BRUNSWICK CITY · PPG 0.73

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.52 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Langwarrin (H) 49.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +8.2%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -4.6%

Brunswick City (A) 28.8%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -19.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Langwarrin face Brunswick City in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Langwarrin a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Brunswick City 29%, so Langwarrin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Langwarrin and 1.9 for Brunswick City (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Langwarrin are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.73 for Brunswick City. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.9%.

Langwarrin vs Brunswick City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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