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U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Club Queretaro Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 18:00

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

PPG 1.28 · HOME

UPCOMING

Club Queretaro

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-15.2%0-22.9%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.2%1-110.2%1-25.6%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.9%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.8%3-16.4%3-23.6%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-14.9%4+-22.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 55.2% 1.81 -9.3%

Draw 24.7% 26.7% 3.75 -4.4%

Away win 25.3% 25.0% 4.00 +0.7%

Over 2.5 53.7% 58.8% 1.70 -8.7%

Over 3.5 32.7% 35.7% 2.80 -8.4%

BTTS 54.1% 60.6% 1.65 -10.7%

Home O1.5 54.6% 57.1% 1.75 -4.5%

Away O1.5 34.7% 34.5% 2.90 +0.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 32%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -28.0%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.1%

H 50% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

U.N.A.M. - Pumas1.9

Club Queretaro1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 32.7%

Form & verdict PPG

U.N.A.M. - PUMAS · PPG 1.28

CLUB QUERETARO · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

U.N.A.M. - Pumas (H) 50.1%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV -9.3%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.4%

Club Queretaro (A) 25.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

U.N.A.M. - Pumas face Club Queretaro in Mexico - Liga MX on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives U.N.A.M. - Pumas a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Club Queretaro 25%, so U.N.A.M. - Pumas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for U.N.A.M. - Pumas and 1.1 for Club Queretaro (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, U.N.A.M. - Pumas are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 1.38 for Club Queretaro. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +4.4%.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Club Queretaro Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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