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Club Tijuana U21 vs Cruz Azul U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 22:45

Club Tijuana U21

PPG 2.12 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cruz Azul U21

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.04 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-15.7%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.9%1-110.5%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.4%3-16.0%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-14.2%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% — — —

Draw 24.4% — — —

Away win 22.2% — — —

Over 2.5 49.9% — — —

Over 3.5 29.0% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 54.6% — — —

Away O1.5 21.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 53% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–0 12.0%

#3 1–0 12.9%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club Tijuana U211.9

Cruz Azul U210.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB TIJUANA U21 · PPG 2.12

CRUZ AZUL U21 · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.04 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Club Tijuana U21 (H) 53.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Cruz Azul U21 (A) 22.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Club Tijuana U21 face Cruz Azul U21 in Mexico - Liga MX U21 on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club Tijuana U21 a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Cruz Azul U21 22%, so Club Tijuana U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Club Tijuana U21 and 0.8 for Cruz Azul U21 (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club Tijuana U21 are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 1.17 for Cruz Azul U21.

Club Tijuana U21 vs Cruz Azul U21 Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX U21

Match Preview & Prediction

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