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Angel City W vs Washington Spirit W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Monday, August 17, 2026, 01:00

Angel City W

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Washington Spirit W

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-111.4%0-26.4%0-32.4%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.8%1-113.3%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.9%2-17.7%2-24.3%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.7%3-13.0%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 35.1% 2.85 +3.7%

Draw 28.4% 30.3% 3.30 -3.8%

Away win 35.2% 44.4% 2.25 -20.8%

Over 2.5 48.1% 54.1% 1.85 -11.0%

Over 3.5 28.3% 31.3% 3.20 -5.7%

BTTS 53.1% 59.9% 1.67 -11.3%

Home O1.5 30.8% 40.0% 2.50 -23.0%

Away O1.5 34.7% 46.5% 2.15 -25.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -12.3%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.1%

D 28% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 48% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.2%

#3 1–0 11.8%

#4 0–1 11.4%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Angel City W1.2

Washington Spirit W1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ANGEL CITY W · PPG 1.33

WASHINGTON SPIRIT W · PPG 2.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.04, combined xG 2.29 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Angel City W (H) 36.4%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +3.7%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -3.8%

Washington Spirit W (A) 35.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -20.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Angel City W face Washington Spirit W in USA - NWSL on Monday, August 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Angel City W a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Washington Spirit W 35%, so Angel City W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Angel City W and 1.1 for Washington Spirit W (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Angel City W are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.00 for Washington Spirit W. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +4.6%.

Angel City W vs Washington Spirit W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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