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Portland Thorns W vs Orlando Pride W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 00:45

Portland Thorns W

PPG 2.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Orlando Pride W

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-14.0%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.2%1-18.8%1-24.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.2%2-19.8%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.6%3-17.3%3-23.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-16.8%4+-23.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.1% 45.5% 2.20 +27.8%

Draw 20.8% 28.6% 3.50 -16.3%

Away win 21.1% 35.7% 2.80 -24.6%

Over 2.5 63.1% 60.6% 1.65 +4.1%

Over 3.5 40.1% 38.5% 2.60 +4.3%

BTTS 56.9% 66.7% 1.50 -14.6%

Home O1.5 63.0% 52.4% 1.91 +20.3%

Away O1.5 26.3% 45.5% 2.20 -25.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -19.4%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob56.9%

H 58% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.2%

#2 1–1 8.8%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 3–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Portland Thorns W2.2

Orlando Pride W1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PORTLAND THORNS W · PPG 2.25

ORLANDO PRIDE W · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.26 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Portland Thorns W (H) 58.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +27.8%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -16.3%

Orlando Pride W (A) 21.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -24.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Portland Thorns W face Orlando Pride W in USA - NWSL on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Portland Thorns W a 58% chance, the draw 21% and Orlando Pride W 21%, so Portland Thorns W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Portland Thorns W and 1.0 for Orlando Pride W (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Portland Thorns W are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.78 for Orlando Pride W. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +23.9%.

Portland Thorns W vs Orlando Pride W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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