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San Diego Wave W vs Denver Summit W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 02:00

San Diego Wave W

PPG 1.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Denver Summit W

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-19.6%0-24.8%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.8%1-112.9%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-18.7%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.9%3-13.9%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.4% 48.8% 2.05 -9.0%

Draw 26.9% 28.2% 3.55 -2.7%

Away win 28.7% 33.3% 3.00 -8.3%

Over 2.5 48.7% 58.8% 1.70 -17.2%

Over 3.5 28.5% 36.4% 2.75 -13.0%

BTTS 53.1% 63.7% 1.57 -16.6%

Home O1.5 37.9% 54.1% 1.85 -29.9%

Away O1.5 29.9% 40.8% 2.45 -16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -19.4%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 49% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 9.5%

#3 1–0 12.8%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Diego Wave W1.3

Denver Summit W1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN DIEGO WAVE W · PPG 1.33

DENVER SUMMIT W · PPG 1.22

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.34, combined xG 2.35 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

San Diego Wave W (H) 44.4%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -9.0%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -2.7%

Denver Summit W (A) 28.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Diego Wave W face Denver Summit W in USA - NWSL on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Diego Wave W a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Denver Summit W 29%, so San Diego Wave W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for San Diego Wave W and 1.0 for Denver Summit W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Diego Wave W are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.22 for Denver Summit W.

San Diego Wave W vs Denver Summit W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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