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NJ/NY Gotham FC W vs Kansas City W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 00:00

NJ/NY Gotham FC W

PPG 2.10 · HOME

UPCOMING

Kansas City W

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-17.0%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.2%1-111.2%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-18.9%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.9%3-14.8%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-12.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% 55.6% 1.80 -2.1%

Draw 23.9% 29.0% 3.45 -10.5%

Away win 21.7% 25.6% 3.90 -9.2%

Over 2.5 48.4% 55.6% 1.80 -12.9%

Over 3.5 28.3% 33.3% 3.00 -9.1%

BTTS 47.7% 59.9% 1.67 -20.3%

Home O1.5 47.2% 55.6% 1.80 -15.0%

Away O1.5 17.2% 33.3% 3.00 -29.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -19.4%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.7%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.2%

#2 2–0 12.9%

#3 1–1 11.2%

#4 0–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NJ/NY Gotham FC W1.6

Kansas City W0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NJ/NY GOTHAM FC W · PPG 2.10

KANSAS CITY W · PPG 0.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.91 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

NJ/NY Gotham FC W (H) 54.4%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -2.1%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -10.5%

Kansas City W (A) 21.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

NJ/NY Gotham FC W face Kansas City W in USA - NWSL on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NJ/NY Gotham FC W a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Kansas City W 22%, so NJ/NY Gotham FC W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for NJ/NY Gotham FC W and 0.7 for Kansas City W (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NJ/NY Gotham FC W are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 0.70 for Kansas City W.

NJ/NY Gotham FC W vs Kansas City W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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