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Boston Legacy W vs Portland Thorns W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 20:00

Boston Legacy W

PPG 1.27 · HOME

3 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Portland Thorns W

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-17.8%0-25.0%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.2%1-111.8%1-27.6%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.0%2-19.0%2-25.8%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.5%3-14.6%3-22.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.4%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% — — —

Draw 24.4% — — —

Away win 26.9% — — —

Over 2.5 53.5% — — —

Over 3.5 32.3% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 35.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -19.4%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-4

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

H 49% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 0–0 6.1%

#4 1–2 7.6%

#5 1–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Boston Legacy W1.5

Portland Thorns W1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BOSTON LEGACY W · PPG 1.27

PORTLAND THORNS W · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.24 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Boston Legacy W (H) 48.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Portland Thorns W (A) 26.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Boston Legacy W face Portland Thorns W in USA - NWSL on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Boston Legacy W a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Portland Thorns W 27%, so Boston Legacy W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Boston Legacy W and 1.3 for Portland Thorns W (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Boston Legacy W are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.00 for Portland Thorns W. This match finished 3-4.

Boston Legacy W vs Portland Thorns W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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