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Utah Royals W vs Bay FC W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 02:00

Utah Royals W

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bay FC W

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-15.6%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.6%1-110.5%1-24.4%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.3%3-16.0%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-14.3%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.6% 56.5% 1.77 -3.4%

Draw 23.6% 27.0% 3.70 -7.6%

Away win 21.8% 26.7% 3.75 -10.9%

Over 2.5 51.6% 60.6% 1.65 -14.9%

Over 3.5 30.0% 38.5% 2.60 -22.0%

BTTS 53.1% 63.7% 1.57 -16.6%

Home O1.5 54.6% 59.9% 1.67 -8.8%

Away O1.5 21.1% 37.7% 2.65 -26.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -19.4%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 55% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–0 11.7%

#3 1–0 12.6%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Utah Royals W1.9

Bay FC W0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

UTAH ROYALS W · PPG 2.00

BAY FC W · PPG 1.22

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.03 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Utah Royals W (H) 54.6%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -3.4%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -7.6%

Bay FC W (A) 21.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Utah Royals W face Bay FC W in USA - NWSL on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Utah Royals W a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Bay FC W 22%, so Utah Royals W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Utah Royals W and 0.8 for Bay FC W (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Utah Royals W are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.22 for Bay FC W.

Utah Royals W vs Bay FC W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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