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Houston Dash W vs Kansas City W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 00:45

Houston Dash W

PPG 1.56 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Kansas City W

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.3%0-24.7%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.0%1-111.5%1-27.4%1-33.2%1-4+1.4%2 2-07.1%2-19.1%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.7%3-14.8%3-23.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.7%4+-21.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 26.3% 3.80 +75.9%

Draw 24.8% 27.4% 3.65 -5.7%

Away win 28.9% 56.5% 1.77 -29.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 60.6% 1.65 -11.7%

Over 3.5 32.3% 38.5% 2.60 -16.0%

BTTS 54.6% 63.7% 1.57 -14.3%

Home O1.5 47.4% 37.0% 2.70 +28.0%

Away O1.5 35.7% 59.9% 1.67 -40.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -19.4%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 0–0 5.7%

#5 1–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Houston Dash W1.6

Kansas City W1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HOUSTON DASH W · PPG 1.56

KANSAS CITY W · PPG 0.67

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.29 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Houston Dash W (H) 46.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +75.9%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -5.7%

Kansas City W (A) 28.9%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -29.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Houston Dash W face Kansas City W in USA - NWSL on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Houston Dash W a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Kansas City W 29%, so Houston Dash W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Houston Dash W and 1.3 for Kansas City W (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Houston Dash W are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.67 for Kansas City W. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +46.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Houston Dash W vs Kansas City W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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