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Seattle Reign FC W vs Chicago Red Stars W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 02:00

Seattle Reign FC W

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Chicago Red Stars W

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-14.5%0-21.2%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.9%1-18.8%1-22.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.6%2-18.6%2-22.4%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.2%3-15.6%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-07.8%4+-14.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.9% 73.5% 1.36 -13.1%

Draw 21.5% 21.7% 4.60 -0.7%

Away win 14.6% 15.4% 6.50 -3.1%

Over 2.5 49.9% 64.5% 1.55 -22.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 41.7% 2.40 -18.7%

BTTS 47.7% 57.8% 1.73 -17.5%

Home O1.5 54.6% 71.4% 1.40 -23.6%

Away O1.5 16.7% 26.3% 3.80 -21.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 69 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -19.4%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.7%

H 64% / xG 2.0-0.6 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.6%

#2 1–0 15.9%

#3 3–0 10.2%

#4 1–1 8.8%

#5 0–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Seattle Reign FC W2.0

Chicago Red Stars W0.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SEATTLE REIGN FC W · PPG 1.38

CHICAGO RED STARS W · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.41 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Seattle Reign FC W (H) 63.9%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -13.1%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -0.7%

Chicago Red Stars W (A) 14.6%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Seattle Reign FC W face Chicago Red Stars W in USA - NWSL on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Seattle Reign FC W a 64% chance, the draw 22% and Chicago Red Stars W 15%, so Seattle Reign FC W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Seattle Reign FC W and 0.6 for Chicago Red Stars W (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Seattle Reign FC W are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.33 for Chicago Red Stars W.

Seattle Reign FC W vs Chicago Red Stars W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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