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North Carolina Courage W vs Houston Dash W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 23:00

North Carolina Courage W

PPG 1.44 · HOME

UPCOMING

Houston Dash W

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-14.1%0-22.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.4%1-19.0%1-24.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.2%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.7%3-17.2%3-23.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-16.5%4+-23.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.0% 65.4% 1.53 -15.8%

Draw 22.3% 24.4% 4.10 -5.1%

Away win 22.7% 19.6% 5.10 +9.5%

Over 2.5 63.1% 61.7% 1.62 +2.2%

Over 3.5 39.8% 40.0% 2.50 -0.5%

BTTS 61.6% 60.6% 1.65 +1.6%

Home O1.5 63.0% 66.7% 1.50 -5.5%

Away O1.5 33.7% 30.8% 3.25 +9.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -19.4%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.6%

H 55% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.2%

#4 3–1 7.2%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

North Carolina Courage W2.2

Houston Dash W1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTH CAROLINA COURAGE W · PPG 1.44

HOUSTON DASH W · PPG 0.62

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.12 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

North Carolina Courage W (H) 55.0%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -15.8%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -5.1%

Houston Dash W (A) 22.7%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

North Carolina Courage W face Houston Dash W in USA - NWSL on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives North Carolina Courage W a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Houston Dash W 23%, so North Carolina Courage W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for North Carolina Courage W and 1.1 for Houston Dash W (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, North Carolina Courage W are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.62 for Houston Dash W. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +9.5%.

North Carolina Courage W vs Houston Dash W Prediction— USA - NWSL

Match Preview & Prediction

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