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Cienciano vs Deportivo Garcilaso Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 23:30

Cienciano

PPG 2.27 · HOME

UPCOMING

Deportivo Garcilaso

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.99 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-16.1%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.8%1-110.8%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.5%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.2%3-15.6%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-13.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% — — —

Draw 24.4% — — —

Away win 22.2% — — —

Over 2.5 49.9% — — —

Over 3.5 28.8% — — —

BTTS 50.5% — — —

Home O1.5 49.2% — — —

Away O1.5 18.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 85 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -4.6%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob50.5%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–0 12.3%

#3 1–0 13.8%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cienciano1.8

Deportivo Garcilaso0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CIENCIANO · PPG 2.27

DEPORTIVO GARCILASO · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.99 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cienciano (H) 53.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Deportivo Garcilaso (A) 22.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Cienciano face Deportivo Garcilaso in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cienciano a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Deportivo Garcilaso 22%, so Cienciano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Cienciano and 0.8 for Deportivo Garcilaso (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cienciano are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 0.90 for Deportivo Garcilaso.

Cienciano vs Deportivo Garcilaso Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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