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FC Cajamarca vs Universitario Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 20:30

FC Cajamarca

PPG 1.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Universitario

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.33 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-17.9%0-24.7%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.1%1-112.0%1-27.2%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.1%2-25.5%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.9%3-14.6%3-22.8%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% — — —

Draw 25.8% — — —

Away win 29.2% — — —

Over 2.5 53.7% — — —

Over 3.5 31.8% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 35.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 85 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -4.6%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.5%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 0–0 6.6%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Cajamarca1.5

Universitario1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FC CAJAMARCA · PPG 1.30

UNIVERSITARIO · PPG 1.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.33 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Cajamarca (H) 44.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Universitario (A) 29.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Cajamarca face Universitario in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Cajamarca a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Universitario 29%, so FC Cajamarca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for FC Cajamarca and 1.2 for Universitario (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Cajamarca are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.10 for Universitario.

FC Cajamarca vs Universitario Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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