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Deportivo Garcilaso vs UCV Moquegua Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 18:00

Deportivo Garcilaso

PPG 2.30 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

UCV Moquegua

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.5% vs bookmaker-implied 65.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-14.9%0-21.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.3%1-19.2%1-22.6%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.3%2-18.7%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.6%3-15.4%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-13.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.5% 65.8% 1.52 -3.5%

Draw 21.2% 25.3% 3.95 -9.8%

Away win 15.4% 16.0% 6.25 -2.3%

Over 2.5 50.3% 51.8% 1.93 -2.9%

Over 3.5 28.8% 30.3% 3.30 -3.0%

BTTS 48.4% 51.8% 1.93 -6.6%

Home O1.5 55.4% 58.8% 1.70 -5.8%

Away O1.5 17.4% 22.2% 4.50 -13.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 83 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.4%

H 64% / xG 1.9-0.6 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 15.3%

#2 1–0 16.3%

#3 1–1 9.2%

#4 0–0 8.7%

#5 3–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Garcilaso1.9

UCV Moquegua0.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO GARCILASO · PPG 2.30

UCV MOQUEGUA · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.32 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Garcilaso (H) 63.5%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV -3.5%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -9.8%

UCV Moquegua (A) 15.4%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV -2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Garcilaso face UCV Moquegua in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Garcilaso a 64% chance, the draw 21% and UCV Moquegua 15%, so Deportivo Garcilaso are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Deportivo Garcilaso and 0.6 for UCV Moquegua (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Garcilaso are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 0.50 for UCV Moquegua. This match finished 2-0.

Deportivo Garcilaso vs UCV Moquegua Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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