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Sport Boys vs Alianza Lima Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 01:00

Sport Boys

PPG 1.90 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Alianza Lima

PPG 1.90 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.6%0-117.0%0-27.4%0-32.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-014.9%1-113.0%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-05.7%2-14.9%2-22.1%2-30.6%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.4%3-11.2%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% 26.0% 3.85 +20.9%

Draw 33.6% 30.3% 3.30 +10.9%

Away win 34.9% 51.0% 1.96 -31.6%

Over 2.5 36.2% 44.4% 2.25 -18.6%

Over 3.5 18.1% 23.1% 4.33 -13.0%

BTTS 45.5% 51.3% 1.95 -11.3%

Home O1.5 32.1% 26.7% 3.75 +20.4%

Away O1.5 22.7% 45.5% 2.20 -30.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 83 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob45.5%

D 34% / xG 0.8-0.9 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.6%

#2 0–1 17.0%

#3 1–1✓ 13.0%

#4 1–0 14.9%

#5 0–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sport Boys0.8

Alianza Lima0.9

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORT BOYS · PPG 1.90

ALIANZA LIMA · PPG 1.90

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.11, combined xG 1.63 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sport Boys (H) 31.4%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +20.9%

Draw 33.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +10.9%

Alianza Lima (A) 34.9%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV -31.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sport Boys face Alianza Lima in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sport Boys a 31% chance, the draw 34% and Alianza Lima 35%, so Alianza Lima are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Sport Boys and 0.9 for Alianza Lima (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sport Boys are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.90 for Alianza Lima. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +20.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Sport Boys vs Alianza Lima Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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