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Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 00:30

Alianza Lima

PPG 2.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

UTC Cajamarca

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.56 for Home, form 2.80 vs 0.73 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-11.4%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.5%1-14.4%1-21.1%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-013.0%2-16.7%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.3%3-16.9%3-21.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-022.1%4+-111.4%4+-22.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.5% — — —

Draw 15.8% — — —

Away win 7.7% — — —

Over 2.5 67.3% — — —

Over 3.5 43.0% — — —

BTTS 47.7% — — —

Home O1.5 80.3% — — —

Away O1.5 16.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 83 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob47.7%

H 76% / xG 3.1-0.5 / O2.5 67% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 13.3%

#2 2–0 13.0%

#3 4–0 10.3%

#4 1–0 8.5%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alianza Lima3.1

UTC Cajamarca0.5

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ALIANZA LIMA · PPG 2.80

UTC CAJAMARCA · PPG 0.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.56 for Home, form 2.80 vs 0.73 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Alianza Lima (H) 76.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

UTC Cajamarca (A) 7.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Alianza Lima face UTC Cajamarca in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alianza Lima a 77% chance, the draw 16% and UTC Cajamarca 8%, so Alianza Lima are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Alianza Lima and 0.5 for UTC Cajamarca (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alianza Lima are averaging 2.80 points per game versus 0.73 for UTC Cajamarca.

Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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