Today / Peru - Primera División / UCV Moquegua vs Sport Boys

UCV Moquegua vs Sport Boys Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 18:15

UCV Moquegua

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sport Boys

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.8%0-19.9%0-23.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.3%1-112.3%1-24.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.4%2-17.6%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.7%3-13.2%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% — — —

Draw 31.8% — — —

Away win 22.2% — — —

Over 2.5 35.7% — — —

Over 3.5 17.7% — — —

BTTS 44.6% — — —

Home O1.5 34.1% — — —

Away O1.5 17.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 85 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -4.6%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob44.6%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.8%

#2 1–0 18.3%

#3 1–1 12.3%

#4 2–0 11.4%

#5 0–1 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UCV Moquegua1.2

Sport Boys0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.7% · O3.5 PROB 17.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UCV MOQUEGUA · PPG 1.60

SPORT BOYS · PPG 0.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

UCV Moquegua (H) 46.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sport Boys (A) 22.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

UCV Moquegua face Sport Boys in Peru - Primera División on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UCV Moquegua a 46% chance, the draw 32% and Sport Boys 22%, so UCV Moquegua are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for UCV Moquegua and 0.7 for Sport Boys (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UCV Moquegua are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.70 for Sport Boys.

UCV Moquegua vs Sport Boys Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions