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ADT vs Alianza Atletico Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 18:00

ADT

PPG 1.27 · HOME

UPCOMING

Alianza Atletico

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-17.5%0-23.1%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.1%1-111.8%1-24.9%1-31.4%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.1%2-19.3%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.9%3-14.9%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.8%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 50.5% 1.98 +4.5%

Draw 24.2% 29.0% 3.45 -9.9%

Away win 22.9% 27.4% 3.65 -9.8%

Over 2.5 51.0% 54.1% 1.85 -5.7%

Over 3.5 30.0% 32.3% 3.10 -7.0%

BTTS 53.1% 58.8% 1.70 -9.7%

Home O1.5 46.9% 51.3% 1.95 -8.6%

Away O1.5 21.1% 33.9% 2.95 -22.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 83 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 14.1%

#3 2–0 11.1%

#4 0–0 8.9%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ADT1.6

Alianza Atletico0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.0% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ADT · PPG 1.27

ALIANZA ATLETICO · PPG 0.73

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

ADT (H) 52.8%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV +4.5%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -9.9%

Alianza Atletico (A) 22.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -9.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

ADT face Alianza Atletico in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ADT a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Alianza Atletico 23%, so ADT are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for ADT and 0.8 for Alianza Atletico (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ADT are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.73 for Alianza Atletico.

ADT vs Alianza Atletico Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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