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Atletico Grau vs Comerciantes Unidos Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 20:00

Atletico Grau

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Comerciantes Unidos

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.6%0-110.4%0-23.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.7%1-112.6%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.7%2-17.6%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.3%3-13.1%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% 53.2% 1.88 -9.2%

Draw 28.3% 30.3% 3.30 -4.0%

Away win 23.4% 23.3% 4.30 +0.4%

Over 2.5 42.7% 44.4% 2.25 -3.9%

Over 3.5 21.1% 23.1% 4.33 -5.2%

BTTS 47.7% 50.0% 2.00 -4.6%

Home O1.5 32.0% 46.5% 2.15 -31.2%

Away O1.5 17.2% 25.0% 4.00 -18.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 83 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.7%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.6%

#2 1–0 17.7%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 2–0 10.7%

#5 0–1 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Grau1.2

Comerciantes Unidos0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO GRAU · PPG 1.40

COMERCIANTES UNIDOS · PPG 0.60

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.50, combined xG 1.93 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Grau (H) 48.3%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV -9.2%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -4.0%

Comerciantes Unidos (A) 23.4%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Grau face Comerciantes Unidos in Peru - Primera División on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Grau a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Comerciantes Unidos 23%, so Atletico Grau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Atletico Grau and 0.7 for Comerciantes Unidos (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Grau are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.60 for Comerciantes Unidos.

Atletico Grau vs Comerciantes Unidos Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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