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Cusco vs Juan Pablo II College Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 23:00

Cusco

PPG 2.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Juan Pablo II College

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 80.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-11.4%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.8%1-14.6%1-22.2%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.8%2-17.5%2-23.6%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.5%3-18.1%3-23.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-015.8%4+-115.1%4+-27.2%4+-32.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.9% 75.2% 1.33 +0.9%

Draw 16.2% 20.6% 4.85 -12.9%

Away win 7.9% 10.9% 9.20 -16.4%

Over 2.5 69.0% 64.5% 1.55 +7.0%

Over 3.5 47.2% 43.5% 2.30 +8.6%

BTTS 60.3% 56.5% 1.77 +6.7%

Home O1.5 80.3% 73.5% 1.36 +9.2%

Away O1.5 26.2% 23.1% 4.33 +8.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 83 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.3%

H 76% / xG 3.3-1.0 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 8.5%

#2 3–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 2–1 7.5%

#5 4–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cusco3.3

Juan Pablo II College1.0

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.0% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CUSCO · PPG 2.30

JUAN PABLO II COLLEGE · PPG 0.80

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.31 for Home, form 2.30 vs 0.80 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Cusco (H) 75.9%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV +0.9%

Draw 16.2%

ODDS 4.85 · IMPLIED 20.6% EV -12.9%

Juan Pablo II College (A) 7.9%

ODDS 9.20 · IMPLIED 10.9% EV -16.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cusco face Juan Pablo II College in Peru - Primera División on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cusco a 76% chance, the draw 16% and Juan Pablo II College 8%, so Cusco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Cusco and 1.0 for Juan Pablo II College (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cusco are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 0.80 for Juan Pablo II College. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +11.1%.

Cusco vs Juan Pablo II College Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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