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Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs FBC Melgar Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 20:30

Club Deportivo Los Chankas

PPG 2.55 · HOME

UPCOMING

FBC Melgar

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 57.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-15.7%0-23.0%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.3%1-110.7%1-25.5%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.9%3-16.1%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.3%4+-22.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 33.9% 2.95 +55.5%

Draw 23.5% 29.4% 3.40 -12.1%

Away win 23.8% 43.9% 2.28 -27.4%

Over 2.5 57.4% 54.1% 1.85 +6.2%

Over 3.5 34.2% 31.3% 3.20 +9.4%

BTTS 54.5% 59.9% 1.67 -9.0%

Home O1.5 54.6% 39.2% 2.55 +39.2%

Away O1.5 32.0% 46.5% 2.15 -31.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 83 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 51%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.5%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club Deportivo Los Chankas1.9

FBC Melgar1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.4% · O3.5 PROB 34.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB DEPORTIVO LOS CHANKAS · PPG 2.55

FBC MELGAR · PPG 1.30

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Club Deportivo Los Chankas (H) 52.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +55.5%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -12.1%

FBC Melgar (A) 23.8%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -27.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Club Deportivo Los Chankas face FBC Melgar in Peru - Primera División on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club Deportivo Los Chankas a 53% chance, the draw 24% and FBC Melgar 24%, so Club Deportivo Los Chankas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Club Deportivo Los Chankas and 1.0 for FBC Melgar (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club Deportivo Los Chankas are averaging 2.55 points per game versus 1.30 for FBC Melgar. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +64.7%.

Club Deportivo Los Chankas vs FBC Melgar Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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