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Club America vs Atletico San Luis Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 23:00

Club America

PPG 2.02 · HOME

UPCOMING

Atletico San Luis

PPG 1.24 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-14.4%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.3%1-19.3%1-23.8%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.8%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.3%3-16.8%3-22.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-15.8%4+-22.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 66.2% 1.51 -16.4%

Draw 22.5% 23.1% 4.33 -1.5%

Away win 22.1% 17.5% 5.70 +15.6%

Over 2.5 53.7% 61.7% 1.62 -13.0%

Over 3.5 31.8% 39.2% 2.55 -18.9%

BTTS 53.1% 58.8% 1.70 -9.7%

Home O1.5 59.8% 65.4% 1.53 -8.5%

Away O1.5 21.1% 28.6% 3.50 -15.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 32%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -28.0%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.1%

H 55% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.9%

#2 1–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 11.3%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 3–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club America2.1

Atletico San Luis0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB AMERICA · PPG 2.02

ATLETICO SAN LUIS · PPG 1.24

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.28 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Club America (H) 55.4%

ODDS 1.51 · IMPLIED 66.2% EV -16.4%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -1.5%

Atletico San Luis (A) 22.1%

ODDS 5.70 · IMPLIED 17.5% EV +15.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Club America face Atletico San Luis in Mexico - Liga MX on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club America a 55% chance, the draw 23% and Atletico San Luis 22%, so Club America are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Club America and 0.8 for Atletico San Luis (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club America are averaging 2.02 points per game versus 1.24 for Atletico San Luis.

Club America vs Atletico San Luis Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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